samedi 24 janvier 2009

Return to The Growth


Many experts expect a rebound in the global economy by the end of 2009 or 2010 ?

This analysis is based on the following points:

• • Plans to revive implemented in major developed and emerging countries (USA, UK, Germany, France, China ...)
• • Continued growth in emerging countries (Asia) that have abundant foreign exchange reserves
• • Central banks and Governments have committed themselves to secure the financial sphere and to ensure the supply of liquidity
• • Central banks have lowered their rates of assistance to very low levels close to zero (with inflation, real interest rates the central bank are negative)
• • Large companies are rather healthy (low debt, margins correct)

Why 2010 ?

• • Deadline for action for the commitment of plans for and takes into consideration the players in the lower rate;
• • Need to have a clear vision for the investors of the actual condition of enterprises and financial institutions (purge after the publication of accounts);
• • reorganization of the interbank market with the banking sector during 2009
• • Clearance of the housing bubble
• • Changing expectations of economic actors
• • Check investments launched in 2007 and 2008 (large amount of investments that should generate productivity gains
• • The depreciation of the stock market and the economic crisis should lead to buyouts and restructuring that boost the financial markets from the second half of 2009

Threats of containment along the growth ?

• • A drift Japanese with a deflationary spiral driven by the depreciation of assets (players wait, no credit ...)
• • No return of confidence in the money market due to the non-transparency of company accounts
• • Not correcting trade imbalances (deficit USA) and thus depreciation of the dollar with the key to a crisis that gets
• • Lack of productivity gains associated with new technologies (we are at the end of the earnings generated by the techniques of communication and information

Threats to future growth

• • Excess liquidity linked to the policy of central banks with the key to resurgence of inflation that could be desired by the public authorities to reduce the weight of debt
• • The situation of public finances forcing states to raise taxes and fees
• • The economic and financial Persistent trade deficit U.S. trade surpluses of China, fluctuations in the dollar, the inability of Europe to develop a coherent economic policy
• • The increase in raw material prices because of the resumption and speculative movements
• • Fluctuations in exchange rates and rising protectionism

Impact on raw materials

• • The decline in oil prices and the financial crisis may curb investment in the search for new deposits and new research techniques. As a result, over time, with the recovery, prices should go up. The price per barrel could be around 80 dollars in 2010.
• • For other raw materials, minerals used in construction should continue to decline because of the slump in real estate even if public works could take over (but partially)
• • Materials in line with sustainable development, energy savings are expected to increase their courses especially for several years if investment in exploration and production have been reduced. On aluminum, the very limited number of players should lead to higher (increased use in automotive, aircraft and construction). The same goes for the chain of carbon materials.

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